Comments on: Why the Ebola fire can almost not be stopped anymore

By: Alexey Turchin

Sat, 04 Oct 2014 12:04:59 +0000

See my article on the topic:
Does the Ebola virus constitute an existential risk?
It takes in account not only exponential growth but also mutations.

http://brighterbrains.org/articles/entry/does-the-ebola-virus-constitute-an-existential-risk

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By: Otto E. Rossler

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 16:12:46 +0000

Thank you for agreeing that the curbing of movement is the only way. Hence the massive logistic and billion-dolllar engagement of a great country. Please, hurry, dear America!

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By: Tom Kerwick

Tue, 23 Sep 2014 15:22:44 +0000

It is clearer to look at the slope on a log scale… and what we actually see is an order of magnitude increase every 3 months — Not quite a doubling every 3 weeks.

If not tackled effectively, this trend would see the majority of West Africa’s 350 million population infected before the end of next year :- 50,000 cases by end of the year, 500,000 by spring, 5 million by summer, 50 million by next autumn, 500 million by the end of next year. Restriction of movement of people will slow this down a lot of course.

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By: Otto E. Rossler

Mon, 22 Sep 2014 18:19:18 +0000

We should also help the affected populations: by (1) disallowing travel and (2) bringing in large numbers of people in safe garments in vehicles distributing water and food. Otherwise the non-migration cannot be implemented, of course.
So a 2-status society will need to be created, residents and distributors.
First of all, the immense amounts of food and water and cars and helpers need to be provided.
Since at present the affected regions are still only half as large as they will be in 3 weeks’ time, by acting to date, half of the numbers necessary in three weeks suffice.
Anyone get the point?

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By: Brian James

Mon, 22 Sep 2014 17:03:16 +0000

As scary as the exponential growth is (it hit me like a brick), the growth will cease being exponential once the virus runs out of “food” (meaning people). The big question is can it be contained to the 3 hard hit countries or not. In my opinion, that is all that can be realistically done.

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By: Otto E. Rossler

Thu, 18 Sep 2014 08:40:24 +0000

Yesterday’s International New York times carrried a very perceptive article about Obama’s most wonderful response.
One billion dollars will still not suffice, but the fact for the first time represents a light on the horizon.
Suddenly humanity has a chance again.
While the doubling continues every three weeks.

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By: RichardKanePA

Wed, 17 Sep 2014 17:30:50 +0000

Little Cuba is doing the most sending in medical teams, better then fancy protective gear that the US is sending to exhausted medical personnel,

I wonder if the world should allow DDT to be spayed of East African Mosquito ponds this year since Malaria is overwhelming medical teams who should only have to deal with Ebola?

On another danger some say that we should spray the upper atmosphere with chemicals that will stop global warming. However using the entire earth as a laboratory is something the world is reluctant to do since several times in the past mistakes caused laboratories to explode or otherwise create mayhem. My question is, why is us human primates so eager to experiment on the entire earth when it comes to micro black holes?

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By: Tom Kerwick

Wed, 17 Sep 2014 17:21:14 +0000

To highlight the significance of this pattern of the past 5 months. **If*** the same pattern continued for another 14 months or so, we would reach world population levels :-

13/09/2014: 5,249 cases / 2,589 deaths
04/10/2014: 10,498 cases / 5,178 deaths
25/10/2014: 20,996 cases / 10,356 deaths
15/11/2014: 41,992 cases / 20,712 deaths
06/12/2014: 83,984 cases / 41,424 deaths
27/12/2014: 167,968 cases / 82,848 deaths
17/01/2015: 335,936 cases / 165,696 deaths
07/02/2015: 671,872 cases / 331,391 deaths
28/02/2015: 1,343,744 cases / 662,784 deaths
21/03/2015: 2,687,488 cases / 1,325,568 deaths
11/04/2015: 5,374,976 cases / 2,651,136 deaths
02/05/2015: 10,749,952 cases / 5,302,272 deaths
23/05/2015: 21.5 million cases / 10.5 million deaths
13/06/2015: 43 million cases / 21 million deaths
04/07/2015: 86 million cases / 42 million deaths
25/07/2015: 172 million cases / 84 million deaths
15/08/2015: 344 million cases / 168 million deaths
05/09/2015: 688 million cases / 336 million deaths
26/09/2015: 1,376 million cases / 672 million deaths
17/10/2015: 2,752 million cases / 1,344 million deaths
07/11/2015: 5,504 million cases / 2,688 million deaths
28/11/2015: / 5,376 million deaths
world population: 7,162 million

Tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.…

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By: Tom Kerwick

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 17:22:40 +0000

Three words… Concentric quarantine zones. Affected countries should be treated similarly to how quarantine zones are treated within those countries. The problem the way I see it is that people travelling from affected countries are currently being treated reactively rather than proactively. At present travellers returning from a trip to an affected area are being asked to be assessed for Ebola if symptoms arise within 3 weeks — this is not containment. To leave an affected area, one should need to be in a border containment area and be clear of the virus for that max three week incubation period before leaving the area. The best solutions are in simplicity.

On the humanitarian side, there should be a massive influx of protective gear for care workers, and basic first-aid training for care workers. It does not make sense to send people. The following seems an insane move to me — US Military to Send 3000 to Battle Ebola Virus
http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-to-send-3-000-to-battle-ebola-virus-1410840310

I see the UN Security council are holding a meeting on Ebola later this week — only the second time in history the council has met to address a public health crisis. Let’s hope it proves constructive.

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By: Otto E. Rossler

Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:55:11 +0000

Thank you for your perceptive minds, my friends.
Can anyone think of a loving strategy — there is no more inter-individual warmth on the planet than in Africa.
Everyone has to think of how to get the organizations and politicians to act.
Please, offer your advice, dear media! Dear Churches! Dear monasteries! Everyone. Ideas are in vitally short supply!

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