Comments on: Proof that The End of Moore’s Law is Not The End of The Singularity https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity Safeguarding Humanity Sat, 29 Apr 2017 21:36:37 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.6.1 By: Eric Klien https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-250168 Tue, 09 Dec 2014 01:00:06 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-250168 @James Dunn

“The data transfer bottleneck needs to be addressed. ”

Currently, the SSD interface is transitioning from SATA to PCI Express and the related M.2 interface. Pretty much all new SSDs can transfer data as fast as the latest SATA interface allows so this is a big deal.

While this doesn’t fully address the many issues that your detailed comment covered, it is a step in the right direction.

@endthedisease

Being able to do 3D will give manufacturers yet another way to increase computing power. The more options they can pick from to increase computing power, the more likely that computing power will increase faster than ever. Note that it will be a few years before NAND chip (SSDs) manufacturers get really good at 3D manufacturing. And at this point we don’t know how soon such developments will come to CMOS chip (CPUs) manufacturers. I expect that the success of 3D NAND chips will inspire more research into 3D CMOS chips and this is a big deal.

Here’s a bit of info about the 3D CMOS chip situation:

Besides the 3D tri-gate transistors which were introduced by Intel in 2012, chips are getting more and more metal layers in them. For instance, here are the stats for the last 8 Intel generations:

Merom, 65nm = 8 layers.
Penryn, 45nm = 9 layers.
Nehalem, 45nm = 9 layers.
Westmere, 32nm = 9 layers.
Sandy Bridge 32nm = 9 layers.
Ivy Bridge, 22nm = 9 layers.
Haswell, 22nm = 11 layers.
Broadwell, 14nm = 13 layers.

Note the recent jump in layers for the last two generations!

]]> By: Marco Santini https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249915 Mon, 08 Dec 2014 10:05:25 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249915 Beg your pardon. I meant “The future, in my opinion, doesn’t already belong only to us anymore.” There is still space for participation.

]]> By: Marco Santini https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249913 Mon, 08 Dec 2014 09:49:23 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249913 Just a final provoking question: where the first superintelligences will be generated? In the labs, within top security supercomputers? Or will they emerge in the net, silenty, without Humanity even realizing it, thanks to the uncomparable power of distributed computing and to a far more stimulating learning environment? In conclusion 3D architecture is only a small element of the puzzle that is going to lead to singularity, since the driving forces are far more complex and permeating. The Moore’s Law itself shows apparent limits in the description of these trends. It is just an element of more complex indexes that can help us in managing the strategies to Singularity and later trying to integrate in it (if self-generated super A.I.s allowing us). Connection and synergies are other fundamentals. I personally believe that new actors / forces of this complex reality, other than Humanity, have already entered the stage leading to Singularity. The future, in my opinion, doesn’t already belong to us anymore. Sorry if I did not limit my comments to the central topic of 3D systems and more generally to Moore’Law.

]]> By: Marty https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249749 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 23:27:39 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249749 @ Eric Klien

I have to say your title does not reflect your statement. 3D chips, especially in their current state, are not the answer to moores law (or the singularity for that matter), but they are a good starting point. I was just trying to defend you against the horde of neckbeards!

]]> By: Marco Santini https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249734 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 22:42:17 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249734 The cloud is going to perform soon the most demanding tasks of computing, database and storage at a level not comparable with portable devices. No surprise, the portables are only an element of the internet of things, a great complex business of the next future, demanding huge computing, database and knowledge capabilities in order to become exponentially profitable. These last will be available for sure in a great distributed, integrated and highly specialized network of hardware and software. The business has well understood this point: Apple, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Samsung and many other great corporations as well as startups are focusing their efforts in this direction. Clock speed and 3D architecture are only part of the problem, a much more integrated approach is needed: a different architecture allowing faster communication among cpu and memory using light too, specialized neuromorphic chips for A.I., memristors… A plethora of new technologies are emerging in all fields of informatics (included medicine). Probably within five years the Hp mini supercomputer will be already a reality as well as the optical supercomputer some others are experimenting in Europe. Plans to increase the top supercomputer speed are under way and in 10–15 years, given the recent progress in quantum computing, also these last will be available. The success factor in this case is the convergence and integration of many different technologies, of hardware and software, all this driven by huge market opportunities and prospected demand.

]]> By: Eric Klien https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249729 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 22:33:51 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249729 @Marty

The word “proof” was used to show that 3D chips are being mass produced and sold today. They are not just a curiosity in a lab. In fact, the Samsung 850 Pro is already a second-generation product with the third-generation using 32-layer 3D TLC chips coming out next year. (And Intel will be releasing a similar product next year as well.)

]]> By: Marty https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249567 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 16:14:24 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249567 Wow, I’m sure glad the reddit neckbeards showed up to express their intellectual superiority over the author about the singularity. Yes, this article may not provide proof, but it is a step in the right direction.

]]> By: Sarcastico https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249566 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 16:14:06 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249566 For most people, bandwidth has replaced raw processing power as the key element of computing performance. Arguments for the singularity have never been about Moore’s law. It is about convergence. Standalone computers have been replaced by computers and devices acting as access points to the internet and to its global repository of data and cloud based processes and services. The singularity will come as we develop a way to converge advances in biology with advances in electronics allowing humanity to directly interface our 3 pounds of gray matter into the internet of the year 20??

]]> By: Ahmed https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249456 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 08:01:05 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249456 The software is getting there, guys.

]]> By: Eric Klien https://russian.lifeboat.com/blog/2014/12/proof-that-the-end-of-moores-law-is-not-the-end-of-the-singularity#comment-249405 Sun, 07 Dec 2014 04:34:53 +0000 http://lifeboat.com/blog/?p=12996#comment-249405 @Contrast

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