Oct 7, 2012

50 months to avoid climate disaster – and a change is in the air

Posted by in category: sustainability

At the halfway point to a climate gamble, 50 contributor ideas give just a taste of the creativity and innovation available to us

“One or other of us will have to go,” Oscar Wilde is supposed to have said on his deathbed to the hated wallpaper in his room. The perilous acceleration of Arctic ice loss, and the imminent threat of irreversible climate change poses a similar ultimatum to the economic system that is pushing us over the brink. For society’s sake I hope this time we redecorate.

Fortunately, many people are queuing up to propose better designs, rather than just cursing the interiors, as you can read about here.

Monday 1 October marks the halfway point in a 100-month countdown to a game of climate roulette.

On a very conservative estimate, 50 months from now, the dice become loaded against us in terms of keeping under a 2C temperature rise. This level matters because beyond it an environmental “domino effect” is likely to operate. In a volatile and unpredictable dynamic, things like melting ice, and the release of carbon from the planet’s surface are set to feed off each other, accelerating and reinforcing the warming effect.

The time frame follows an estimate of risk of rising greenhouse gas concentrations from the world’s leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that passed a certain point, it will no longer be “likely” that we stay the right side of the line. Some consider even a 2C rise too much, but it is the limit that the EU and others have signed up to.

Extraordinarily, however, in spite of the stakes, the issue has receded from the political frontline like a wave shrinking down a beach. This could, though, merely be a prelude to it returning with a vengeance. Politicians may have turned their backs, others have not.

Continue reading “50 months to avoid climate disaster”


Comments — comments are now closed.

  1. Mike Lorrey says:

    There is zero scientific basis for a 2 C warming even over the next century. Whoever wrote this needs to put their real name on this post, or retract it. Sock puppets making scientific claims have zero credibility.

  2. Mike Lorrey says:

    BTW: Last month we reached the 15 year anniversary of the alarmists claims that the arctic would be 100% ice free and that New York City would be several feet under water. Neither happened. In fact, actual conditions are hardly changed much at all from how things were 15 years ago, with zero net warming in that time period of any statistical significance.

  3. Mike Lorrey says:

    Funny how the author only decries Arctic ice loss, while ignoring that Antarctic ice has reached a record extent.…. sorta defeats the narrative eh?

  4. Tom Kerwick says:

    Mike — there is no correlation between the Arctic sea being 100% ice free and New York City being several feet under water. As the ice-cap over the Arctic sea is not over land, it’s melting does not significantly contribute to rising sea levels — though it will contribute to more violent climate. The melting of the Greenland ice-sheet is much more significant — ref. an earlier blog I wrote — and, as you point out melting of ice-sheets over Antarctica.

  5. Mike Lorrey says:

    Tom, the climate alarmists made both predictions that both events would happen THIS summer. Antarctica isn’t melting, its growing, which is what the link I pointed to shows, growing to record area/extent.

  6. Tom Kerwick says:

    Mike — ok I hadn’t read your link. That’s news to me and contradicts most else of what I’ve read on the subject. It may be a case that the West Antarctic ice sheet is warming/melting somewhat, but the larger East Antarctic sheet is growing. Interesting.

  7. Tom Kerwick says:

    According to the wiki, the Antarctic sheets are losing mass at a rate of 152 cubic kilometers (ca 139 billion tonnes) per year, referencing “Antarctic ice sheet losing mass” from a University of Colorado study. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Antarctic_Ice_Sheet Note that reaching record area/extent does not necessarily contradict that it is losing mass overall — considering thickness of the ice sheet. Perhaps a more recent figure needed.

  8. Mike Lorrey says:

    The wikipedia articles have been hopelessly corrupted by edit swarming led by William Connolley, who was being paid by GISS and CRU to slant all climate related articles in warmists favor. He got fired from wikipedia for that but his edits stand.

  9. Mike Lorrey is one of those people who are on a crusade to expose the global warming conspiracy. He can join the cold fusion conspiracy theorists, the hollow earthers, the flat earthers, the CERN black hole doomsday theorists, the gravity modifiers, and all the odd edges that post trivial garbage whenever they feel a need to see their name on a blog.
    Congratulations Mike.

  10. Tom Kerwick says:

    Article in the National Geographic about the increasing Antarctic sea ice — http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/121013-antar…al-warming

    The most important point is that continental Antarctic ice is still decreasing, which is the more significant metric in terms of rises in sea levels. Also the minor increase in Antarctic sea ice is offset greatly my melt in the Arctic. However, the 50 month sensationalism from Odd Edges only discredits any debate on melt concerns.

  11. Devika says:

    I’m so glad I am not the only one. I have been asking my wife who is one of the pihtycisss working on atlas the same question. She told me she would try find out for me and explain it and today sent me your link with a big smily face attached.I hope you do find out what it all means