One of the most influential figures in the field of AI, Ray Kurzweil, has famously predicted that the singularity will happen by 2045. Kurzweil’s prediction is based on his observation of exponential growth in technological advancements and the concept of “technological singularity” proposed by mathematician Vernor Vinge.
It is with sadness — and deep appreciation of my friend and colleague — that I must report the passing of Vernor Vinge.
The technological singularity —or simply the singularity[1] —is a hypothetical future point in time at which technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible, resulting in unforeseeable consequences for human civilization.[2][3] According to the most popular version of the singularity hypothesis, I. J. Good’s intelligence explosion model, an upgradable intelligent agent will eventually enter a “runaway reaction” of self-improvement cycles, each new and more intelligent generation appearing more and more rapidly, causing an “explosion” in intelligence and resulting in a powerful superintelligence that qualitatively far surpasses all human intelligence.[4]
The first person to use the concept of a “singularity” in the technological context was the 20th-century Hungarian-American mathematician John von Neumann.[5] Stanislaw Ulam reports in 1958 an earlier discussion with von Neumann “centered on the accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue”.[6] Subsequent authors have echoed this viewpoint.[3][7]
Calum and David recently attended the BGI24 event in Panama City, that is, the Beneficial General Intelligence summit and unconference. One of the speakers we particularly enjoyed listening to was Daniel Faggella, the Founder and Head of Research of Emerj.
Something that featured in his talk was a 3 by 3 matrix, which he calls the Intelligence Trajectory Political Matrix, or ITPM for short. As we’ll be discussing in this episode, one of the dimensions of this matrix is the kind of end goal future that people desire, as intelligent systems become ever more powerful. And the other dimension is the kind of methods people want to use to bring about that desired future.
So, if anyone thinks there are only two options in play regarding the future of AI, for example “accelerationists” versus “doomers”, to use two names that are often thrown around these days, they’re actually missing a much wider set of options. And frankly, given the challenges posed by the fast development of AI systems that seem to be increasingly beyond our understanding and beyond our control, the more options we can consider, the better.
Or did it? From flying cars to the Singularity, here’s how some of the most popular visions of the high-tech future are panning out today.
We could build an AI that demonstrates generalized, human-level intelligence within three to eight years — which may open the door to a “super intelligence” in a very short space of time.
Posted in cyborgs, economics, employment, internet, robotics/AI, singularity
When will AI match and surpass human capability? In short, when will we have AGI, or artificial general intelligence… the kind of intelligence that should teach itself and grow itself to vastly larger intellect than an individual human?
According to Ben Goertzel, CEO of SingularityNet, that time is very close: only 3 to 8 years away. In this TechFirst, I chat with Ben as we approach the Beneficial AGI conference in Panama City, Panama.
We discuss the diverse possibilities of human and post-human existence, from cyborg enhancements to digital mind uploads, and the varying timelines for when we might achieve AGI. We talk about the role of current AI technologies, like LLMs, and how they fit into the path towards AGI, highlighting the importance of combining multiple AI methods to mirror human intelligence complexity.
We also explore the societal and ethical implications of AGI development, including job obsolescence, data privacy, and the potential geopolitical ramifications, emphasizing the critical period of transition towards a post-singularity world where AI could significantly improve human life. Finally, we talk about ownership and decentralization of AI, comparing it to the internet’s evolution, and envisages the role of humans in a world where AI surpasses human intelligence.
When time reaches its limits, scientists call those moments “singularities.” These can mark the start or end of time itself. The most famous singularity is the big bang, which happened around 13.7 billion years ago, kicking off the universe and time as we know it. If the universe ever stops expanding and starts collapsing, it could lead to a reverse of the big bang called the big crunch, where time would stop. As our distant descendants approach the end of time, they will face increasing challenges in a hostile universe, and their efforts will only accelerate the inevitable. We are not passive victims of time’s demise; we contribute to it. Through our existence, we convert energy into waste heat, contributing to the universe’s degeneration. Time must cease for us to continue living.
The purpose of this work is to investigate how several inflationary and bouncing scenarios can be realized by imperfect fluids. We shall use two different theoretical frameworks, namely classical cosmology and Loop Quantum Cosmology (LQC) (see where the derivation of the Hamiltonian in LQC was firstly derived to yield the modified Friedman equation, and also see for a recent derivation of the effective Hamiltonian in LQC, which was derived by demanding repulsive gravity, as in Loop Quantum Gravity). In both cases we shall investigate which imperfect fluid can realize various inflationary and bouncing cosmology scenarios. The inflationary cosmology and bouncing cosmology are two alternative scenarios for our Universe evolution. In the case of inflation, the Universe starts from an initial singularity and accelerates at early times, while in the case of the bouncing cosmology, the Universe initially contracts until it reaches a minimum radius, and then it expands again. With regards to inflation, we shall be interested in four different inflationary scenarios, namely the intermediate inflation, the Starobinsky inflation, and two constant-roll inflation scenarios. With regards to bouncing cosmologies, we shall be interested in realizing several well studied bouncing cosmologies, and particularly the matter bounce scenario, the superbounce scenario and the singular bounce.
As we already mentioned we shall use two theoretical frameworks, that of classical cosmology and that of LQC. After presenting the reconstruction methods for realizing the various cosmologies with imperfect fluids, we proceed to the realization of the cosmologies by using the reconstruction methods. In the case of classical cosmology, we will calculate the power spectrum of primordial curvature perturbations, the scalar-to-tensor ratio and the running of the spectral index for all the aforementioned cosmologies, and we compare the results to the recent Planck data. The main outcome of our work is that, although the cosmological scenarios we study in this paper are viable in other modified gravity frameworks, these are not necessarily viable in all the alternative modified gravity descriptions. As we will demonstrate, in some cases the resulting imperfect fluid cosmologies are not compatible at all with the observational data, and in some other cases, there is partial compatibility.
We need to note that the perturbation aspects in LQC are not transparent enough and assume that there are no non-trivial quantum gravitational modifications arising due to presence of inhomogeneities. As it was shown in, a consistent Hamiltonian framework does not allow this assumption to be true. The perturbations issues that may arise in the context of the present work, are possibly more related to some early works in LQC, so any calculation of the primordial power spectrum should be addressed as we commented above.
In this episode, recorded during last year’s Abundance360 summit, Ray Kurzweil answers questions from the audience about AI, the future, and how this change will affect all aspects of our society.
Ray Kurzweil, an American inventor and futurist, is a pioneer in artificial intelligence, having contributed significantly to OCR, text-to-speech, and speech recognition technologies. Author of numerous books on AI and the future of technology, he’s received the National Medal of Technology and Innovation, among other honors. At Google, Kurzweil focuses on machine learning and language processing, driving advancements in technology and human potential.
Read his latest book, The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI: https://a.co/d/gBB4jel.
Learn more about AbundanceA360 2024 Summit: https://www.abundance360.com/summit.
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